Model performance
Chronological holdout
- Games
- 11,802
- Start date
- 2006-04-04
- Brier
- 0.2077
- Accuracy
- 67.2%
- Log loss
- 0.6020
Selected Elo config
- K factor
- 20
- Home advantage
- 85 Elo
- Season carryover
- 0.65
Reliability by home-win probability bin
0.0-0.1
9.6%
0.0%
0.1-0.2
17.1%
16.7%
0.2-0.3
25.7%
24.8%
0.3-0.4
35.4%
36.2%
0.4-0.5
45.3%
42.8%
0.5-0.6
55.2%
54.3%
0.6-0.7
65.0%
63.0%
0.7-0.8
74.9%
75.5%
0.8-0.9
84.3%
85.4%
0.9-1.0
92.0%
92.2%
Columns: probability bin, observed home-win rate bar, average predicted rate, observed rate.