NBA Elo forecast

A static, reproducible NBA prediction pipeline built from completed historical results.

Completed games

59,008

1946-11-01 through 2015-06-16

Holdout log loss

0.6020

Brier 0.2077 · last 11,802 games from 2006-04-04

Holdout accuracy

67.2%

K=20, home=85, carry=0.65

Most recent scored games · historical backtest probabilities

2015-06-16

CLE 97–105 GSW

50.5% home

2015-06-14

GSW 104–91 CLE

70.9% home

2015-06-11

CLE 82–103 GSW

55.4% home

2015-06-09

CLE 96–91 GSW

52.7% home

2015-06-07

GSW 93–95 CLE

73.9% home

2015-06-04

GSW 108–100 CLE

72.7% home

2015-05-27

GSW 104–90 HOU

74.6% home

2015-05-26

CLE 118–88 ATL

72.7% home

This site currently shows historical walk-forward scoring. Forward fixture ingest is not yet wired, so no future-game betting-style picks are displayed.